Transatlantic Technologies: the Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. And European Productivity Growth
Transatlantic Technologies: the Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. And European Productivity Growth
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跨大西洋技术：信息通信技术在美国和欧洲生产力增长演变中的作用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Sayed
中科院分区：
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作者：
R. Gordon;H. Sayed
我们研究了1977年至2015年美国和10个西欧国家（欧盟10国）的ICT革命在推动生产率增长行为方面的作用。我们发现，标准的增长核算方法是有缺陷的，当它分开的ICT资本深化和TFP增长之间的增长来源，因为ICT革命的大部分效果是通过溢出到TFP增长，而不是被限制在资本深化路径。使用来自欧盟KLEMS的行业层面数据，我们发现1995-2005年美国生产率增长复苏的大部分是由生产市场服务和计算机硬件的ICT密集型行业推动的。相比之下，欧盟10国经历了1995-2005年的增长放缓，原因是信通技术投资不足，未能获得信通技术的效率效益，以及信通技术生产、金融保险、零售批发和农业等特定行业的业绩不足。2005年后，美国和欧盟10国都经历了增长放缓，这表明信息和通信技术革命的好处是暂时的，而不是提供一个新的更快的生产率增长的永久时代。2005年后大西洋两岸的经济增长放缓与一种更广泛的观点是一致的，即与战后的前几十年相比，持续的创新在促进生产率增长方面的作用已经减弱。
We examine the role of the ICT revolution in driving productivity growth behavior for the United States and an aggregate of ten Western European nations (the EU-10) from 1977 to 2015. We find that the standard growth accounting approach is deficient when it separates sources of growth between ICT capital deepening and TFP growth, because much of the effect of the ICT revolution was channeled through spillovers to TFP growth rather than being limited to the capital deepening pathway. Using industry-level data from EU KLEMS, we find that most of the 1995-2005 U.S. productivity growth revival was driven by ICT-intensive industries producing market services and computer hardware. In contrast the EU-10 experienced a 1995-2005 growth slowdown due to a paucity of ICT investment, a failure to capture the efficiency benefits of ICT, and performance shortfalls in specific industries including ICT production, finance-insurance, retail-wholesale, and agriculture. After 2005 both the U.S. and the EU-10 suffered a growth slowdown, indicating that the benefits of the ICT revolution were temporary rather than providing a new permanent era of faster productivity growth. This joint transatlantic post-2005 slowdown is consistent with the broader view that ongoing innovation has been less potent in boosting productivity growth compared to earlier decades of the postwar era.