Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010
Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2005.12.015
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发表时间：
2006-11-01
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Nevin, Rick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jacobs, David E.;Nevin, Rick
我们根据先前未经验证的模型（将全国血铅数据与三个不同的住房数据集相结合）预测 1990 年至 2010 年儿童铅中毒和住宅含铅油漆危害流行率。描述房屋拆除、修复、窗户更换和含铅油漆趋势的住房数据集是美国住房调查、住宅能源消耗调查和国家含铅油漆调查。血铅数据主要来自全国健康与营养检查调查。现在，新数据可以验证预测时间段的中点。 2000 年，该模型预测 1960 年之前有 2,330 万套住房存在含铅油漆危害，而 HUD 的经验估计为 2,060 万套。此外，该模型预测 2000 年将有 498,000 名儿童血铅水平 (EBL) 升高，而 CDC 的经验估计为 434,000 名。该模型的预测完全在住宅含铅油漆危害和血铅结果测量的经验估计的 95% 置信区间内。该模型显示，更换窗户在很大程度上解释了从 1990 年到 2000 年发生的铅中毒事件的急剧减少。此处，使用新数据描述并更新了 2010 年模型的构建。儿童铅中毒的进一步下降是可以实现的，但如果不采取额外行动，到2010年消除儿童血铅水平≥10μg/dL的目标就不太可能实现。更换窗户政策将带来多重好处，包括预防铅中毒、提高家庭能源效率、减少发电厂排放、提高住房负担能力以及其他以前未认识到的好处。最后，结合住房和健康数据可用于预测其他与住房相关的疾病和伤害。 (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. 保留所有权利。
We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines- national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred-from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels >= 10 mu g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits., Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.