Trajectory Forecast as a Rapid Response to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Trajectory Forecast as a Rapid Response to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
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DOI：
10.1029/2011gm001121
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发表时间：
2013-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yonggang Liu;R. Weisberg;Chuanmin Hu;Lianyuan Zheng
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文献类型：
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作者：
Yonggang Liu;R. Weisberg;Chuanmin Hu;Lianyuan Zheng
针对墨西哥湾深水地平线石油泄漏，拉格朗日轨迹建模系统，立即实施泄漏发生后，通过编组数值模型和卫星遥感资源，从现有的沿海海洋观测活动。从卫星图像推断出的表面石油位置被用来重新初始化轨迹模型集合中的虚拟粒子的位置，并使用预测的表面电流跟踪粒子，添加新的粒子来模拟石油从井中持续释放。这种建模工作面临的一个挑战是，在整个泄漏事件中，许多信息仍然是未知的，由于密集的缓解活动，还有额外的不确定性。通过频繁地用卫星推断的位置重新初始化轨迹模型，就地减缓和预测误差增长的影响得到了隐含的考虑和最小化。在随后的预报周期中，将模拟的表面油轨迹与卫星观测结果进行比较，以检验准确性。虽然得到了类似的结果，但总的来说，不同模型的模拟轨迹存在差异。然而，没有一个模型在整个事件中表现得比其他模型更好或更差，只有一个例外。从这次活动中吸取的经验教训可能有助于今后建立快速轨迹预报系统。
In response to the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon oil spill, a Lagrangian trajectory modeling system was implemented immediately upon spill onset by marshaling numerical model and satellite remote sensing resources available from existing coastal ocean-observing activities. Surface oil locations inferred from satellite imagery were used to re-initialize the positions of virtual particles in this ensemble of trajectory models, and the particles were tracked using forecast surface currents, with new particles added to simulate the continual release of oil from the well. A challenge to this modeling effort was that much information remained unknown throughout the spill event, with additional uncertainty due to intensive mitigation activities. By frequently re-initializing the trajectory models with satelliteinferred locations, the effects of in situ mitigation and forecast error growth were implicitly accounted for and minimized. The simulated surface oil trajectories were compared to the satellite observations in subsequent forecast cycles for veracity testing. Although similar results were obtained, in general, differences were seen in the simulated trajectories by different models. However, no one model performed consistently better or worse than the others throughout the event with one exception. The lessons learned from the event may be useful in preparing rapid trajectory forecast systems in the future.