Can You Believe Your Neighbors' Behaviors?
Can You Believe Your Neighbors' Behaviors?
复制标题
你能相信你邻居的行为吗？
作者：
Shunichiro Sasaki;Toshiji Kawagoe
在信息级联的理论假设中，私人信号和前辈的行为在信息级联之前是等效的信息，但一旦信息级联开始，就不是了。本实验研究通过测量私人信号的信息性和信息级联中人类受试者的行为来验证这一假设。我们观察到，信息级联中的受试者并没有从参与者的行为中提取太多信息，这表明他们认识到其他受试者的级联行为，受试者更多地依赖于他们的私人信号而不是参与者的行为，即使两者都是同等的信息，受试者由于锚定、调整或保守等认知偏差，不能以贝叶斯方式精确估计后验信念。
In the theoretical assumption of informational cascades, private signals and predecessors' actions are equivalently informative before informational cascades, but are not once informational cascades have started. This experimental study tests this assumption by measuring the informativeness of private signals and predecessors'' actions for human subjects in and out of informational cascades. We observed that subjects in informational cascades do not extract much information from predecessors'' actions, indicating that they recognize other subjects'' cascading behaviors, that subjects rely more on their private signals than on predecessors'' actions even when both of them are equivalently informative, and that subjects cannot estimate posterior beliefs precisely in a Bayesian way due to cognitive biases such as anchoring and adjustment or conservatism.