Demographics, immigration, and market size

Demographics, immigration, and market size
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人口统计、移民和市场规模

DOI:
10.1007/s42973-019-00023-w
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发表时间:
2020
影响因子:
1.2
通讯作者:
Yasuhiro Sato and Kazuhiro Yamamoto
Yasuhiro Sato and Kazuhiro Yamamoto
中科院分区:
经济学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Koichi Fukumura;Kohei Nagamachi;Yasuhiro Sato and Kazuhiro Yamamoto

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本文研究了日本和美国在人口统计学上的异同所带来的影响。为此,我们构建了一个重叠代模型,在这个模型中,人们决定自己孩子的数量和对差异化商品的消费水平。我们假设移民是根据一个国家内外的效用差异发生的。我们揭示了寿命延长对市场规模和福利的可能影响。然后,我们校准了我们的模型,以匹配1955年至2015年日本和美国的数据,并确定了主导效应。此外,我们的反事实分析表明,在日本接受移民有助于克服人口老龄化造成的人口和市场萎缩。
This paper investigates the implications of similarities and differences in demographics between Japan and the United States. For this purpose, we construct an overlapping generations model wherein people decide their number of children and levels of consumption for differentiated goods. We assume that immigration takes place according to the utility difference between inside and outside a country. We uncover possible effects of an improvement in longevity on the market size and welfare. We then calibrate our model to match the Japanese and US data from 1955 to 2015 and pin down the dominant effect. Moreover, our counterfactual analyses show that accepting immigration in Japan can be useful in overcoming population and market shrinkage caused by an aging population.
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