The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come from and How Will It End?
The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come from and How Will It End?
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日本银行业危机：从何而来，又将如何结束？
DOI：
10.1086/654383
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发表时间：
1999
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
A. Kashyap
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Hoshi;A. Kashyap
我们认为，导致大爆炸的放松管制在当前的银行业问题中发挥了重要作用。这种放松管制的做法使大公司能够迅速从依赖银行转向依赖资本市场融资。我们提出的证据表明，日本的大型借款人，特别是制造业企业，已经变得几乎像美国企业一样独立于银行。放松管制对储蓄者不利，因此他们大多继续将钱交给银行。然而，银行也受到了限制。他们没有获得从传统活动转向新业务领域的授权。这些发展共同意味着银行保留资产，不得不寻找新的借款人。他们的新贷款主要流向小企业，与过去相比，与房地产的联系更加紧密。这些贷款在1990年代的表现并不好。我们讨论了当前不良贷款问题的规模，并得出结论，这是相当大的（约占GDP的7%）。展望未来，我们认为，大爆炸将纠正上述监管失衡。这将意味着银行将不得不努力留住存款。更重要的是，我们预计会有更多的公司转向资本市场融资。以美国的借贷模式为参照，我们的预测显示，这种即将发生的转变意味着日本银行业规模的大规模收缩。
We argue that the deregulation leading up to the Big Bang has played a major role in the current banking problems. This deregulation allowed large corporations to switch quickly from depending on banks to relying on capital-market financing. We present evidence showing that large Japanese borrowers, particularly manufacturing firms, have already become almost as independent of banks as comparable U.S. firms. The deregulation was much less favorable for savers, and consequently they mostly continued turning their money over to the banks. However, banks were also constrained. They were not given authorization to move out of traditional activities into new lines of business. These developments together meant that the banks retained assets and had to search for new borrowers. Their new lending primarily flowed to small businesses and became much more tied to property than in the past. These loans have not fared well during the 1990s. We discuss the size of the current bad-loan problem and conclude that it is quite large (on the order of 7% of GDP). Looking ahead, we argue that the Big Bang will correct the aforementioned regulatory imbalances. This will mean that banks will have to fight to retain deposits. More importantly, we expect even more firms to migrate to capital-market financing. Using the U.S. borrowing patterns as a guide, we present estimates showing that this impending shift implies a massive contraction in the size of the Japanese banking sector.
伊藤隆俊——我的研究
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