Intermodal competition in the London-Paris passenger market: High-Speed Rail and air transport
Intermodal competition in the London-Paris passenger market: High-Speed Rail and air transport
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jue.2011.12.005
复制
发表时间：
2012-05-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Pels, Eric
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Behrens, Christiaan;Pels, Eric
本文研究了2003-2009年期间伦敦-巴黎客运市场的内部和内部竞争。我们确定了高速铁路作为航空旅行可行替代品的程度和条件。使用汇总的横截面数据，我们估计多项和混合logit模型，以检查实际的旅行行为。我们的模型使我们能够分析乘客行为对航空替代方案的撤回和2007年11月两个城市之间高铁连接的完成的反应。结果表明，出行时间和频率是影响出行行为的主要因素。总旅行时间的估值在高速铁路开通后的几年内发生变化。此外，我们表明，一些航空替代品的市场份额相对于频率的直接弹性是1以上，这表明这些替代品是不能最大限度地提高利润。这些替代品随后在我们的样本期内离开了市场。对于其余的航空替代品，除了易捷航空，我们发现市场份额相对于频率的弹性接近1。因此，我们推测，从长远来看，这个市场的竞争将下降。(C)2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
This paper studies inter- and intramodal competition in the London-Paris passenger market during the period 2003-2009. We identify the degree to and conditions under which High-Speed Rail is a viable substitute for airline travel. Using pooled cross-sectional data we estimate multinomial and mixed logit models to examine actual travel behaviour. Our model allows us to analyse the reaction of passenger behaviour on the withdrawal of aviation alternatives and the completion of the High-Speed Rail link between the two cities in November 2007. The results show that travel time and frequency are the main determinants of travel behaviour. The valuation of total travel times changes over the years following the opening of the High-Speed Rail link. Furthermore, we show that the direct elasticity of market share with respect to frequency for a number of aviation alternatives is above 1, indicating that these alternatives are not able to maximise profits. These alternatives subsequently left the market in our sample period. For the remaining aviation alternatives, except for easyJet, we find elasticities of market share with respect to frequency close to 1. Therefore, we conjecture that competition in this market will decline in the long run. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.