Potential inundation of Lisbon downtown by a 1755-like tsunami
Potential inundation of Lisbon downtown by a 1755-like tsunami
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类似 1755 年的海啸可能会淹没里斯本市中心
DOI：
10.5194/nhess-11-3319-2011
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
C. Antunes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Baptista;J. M. Miranda;R. Omira;C. Antunes
摘要。在这项研究中，我们提出了里斯本市中心和塔霍河河口10米分辨率的海啸洪水地图。为了计算这些地图，我们使用现有的测深和地形图以及对最大可信海啸情景的合理估计。海啸模型采用非线性浅水模型，采用四层嵌套网格。从流深、爬高和最大淹没面积三个方面对海啸洪水进行了讨论。结果表明，即使在今天，尽管1755年地震后城市河面发生了明显的形态变化，但类似的事件仍会在塔霍斯河口和里斯本市中心的大片地区造成深度超过1米的海啸。河口沿岸其他人口密度较高的地区也将受到严重影响。由于里斯本的潮汐幅度很大，讨论了潮汐对海啸淹没程度的影响，并与1755年事件的历史描述进行了比较。这里提出的结果可用于确定里斯本潜在的海啸淹没区；这种鉴定是葡萄牙海啸应急管理系统的一个关键要素。
Abstract. In this study, we present 10 m resolution tsunami flooding maps for Lisbon downtown and the Tagus estuary. To compute these maps we use the present bathymetry and topographic maps and a reasonable estimate for the maximum credible tsunami scenario. Tsunami modeling was made with a non-linear shallow water model using four levels of nested grids. The tsunami flood is discussed in terms of flow depth, run-up height and maximum inundation area. The results show that, even today, in spite of the significant morphologic changes in the city river front after the 1755 earthquake, a similar event would cause tsunami flow depths larger than one meter in a large area along the Tagus estuary and Lisbon downtown. Other areas along the estuary with a high population density would also be strongly affected. The impact of the tide on the extent of tsunami inundation is discussed, due to the large amplitude range of the tide in Lisbon, and compared with the historical descriptions of the 1755 event. The results presented here can be used to identify the potential tsunami inundation areas in Lisbon; this identification comprises a key element of the Portuguese tsunami emergency management system.