Influence of weather on the synchrony of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) outbreaks in New England
Influence of weather on the synchrony of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) outbreaks in New England
复制标题
天气对新英格兰舞毒蛾（鳞翅目：舞毒蛾科）爆发同步性的影响
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Andrew M. Liebhold
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
David W. Williams;Andrew M. Liebhold
从1938年到1992年，吉普赛飞蛾的暴发在新英格兰各州(马萨诸塞州、缅因州、新罕布夏州和佛蒙特州)部分同步发生。为了解释这种同步性，我们研究了莫兰效应，这是一个假设，即由类似的密度依赖机制在时滞运行所导致的局部人口振荡，可能会通过暴露于共同的天气模式而在大范围内同步。我们还研究了气候释放理论，该理论假设疫情是由有利于人口增长的气候因素引发的。时间序列分析表明，2个状态的落叶序列为一阶自回归过程，另2个状态为周期性的二阶自回归过程。利用每个州的自回归模型计算的落叶残差序列与记录在各个州的天气变量序列进行交叉相关。与落叶残留量显著相关的气象变量是同一代的12月中旬的最低气温和降水量，以及上一代的7月中下旬的最低气温。这些天气变量在4个州之间也有很强的相关性。这些分析支持了莫兰效应的预测，并表明共同的天气可能会使当地人口同步，从而在大范围内产生虫害暴发。我们没有找到令人信服的证据来支持气候释放理论。
Outbreaks of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), were partially synchronous across the New England states (Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont) from 1938 to 1992. To explain this synchrony, we investigated the Moran effect, a hypothesis that local population oscillations, which result from similar density-dependent mechanisms operating at time lags, may be synchronized over wide areas by exposure to common weather patterns. We also investigated the theory of climatic release, which postulates that outbreaks are triggered by climatic factors favorable for population growth. Time series analysis revealed defoliation series in 2 states as 1st-order autoregressive processes and the other 2 as periodic 2nd-order autoregressive processes. Defoliation residuals series computed using the autoregressive models for each state were cross correlated with series of weather variables recorded in the respective states. The weather variables significantly correlated with defoliation residuals in all 4 states were minimum temperature and precipitation in mid-December in the same gypsy moth generation and minimum temperature in mid- to late July of the previous generation. These weather variables also were correlated strongly among the 4 states. The analyses support the predictions of the Moran effect and suggest that common weather may synchronize local populations so as to produce pest outbreaks over wide areas. We did not find convincing evidence to support the theory of climatic release.