Descriptive epidemiology of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain: the first five months
Descriptive epidemiology of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain: the first five months
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DOI：
10.1136/vr.149.24.729
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发表时间：
2001-12-15
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Hudson, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gibbens, JC;Sharpe, CE;Hudson, M
2001年2月，口蹄疫在英国得到确认。一场大规模的流行病发展起来，3月下旬达到高峰，每天约有50例，到5月下降到每天不到10例。截至7月中旬，已发现1849例病例。采取的主要控制措施是限制牲畜移动和迅速宰杀受感染和接触过的牲畜。第一个发现的病例发生在英格兰东南部;感染被追踪到英格兰东北部的一个农场，所有其他病例都与该农场有关。由于多种事件的综合作用，包括指示病例诊断的延迟、在口蹄疫首次诊断之前受感染的羊进入市场以及一年中的时间，疫情规模很大。该病毒是在全国各地有许多羊群流动的时候引入的，天气条件支持该病毒的生存。结果是口蹄疫病毒多次、有效地初次传入主要的牧羊区。随后的局部传播，从这些介绍占大多数情况下。当地疫情最严重的地区是羊群密集和牲畜贩子活跃的地区。大多数受影响的农场既养羊又养牛。在撰写本文时，疫情仍在持续;然而，本文为前五个月的科学讨论提供了基础。
In February 2001, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was confirmed in Great Britain. A major epidemic developed, which peaked around 50 cases a day in late March, declining to under 10 a day by May. By mid-July, 1849 cases had been detected. The main control measures employed were livestock movement restrictions and the rapid slaughter of infected and exposed livestock. The first detected case was in south-east England; infection was traced to a farm in north-east England to which all other cases were linked. The epidemic was large as a result of a combination of events, including a delay in the diagnosis of the index case, the movement of infected sheep to market before FMD was first diagnosed, and the time of year. Virus was introduced at a time when there were many sheep movements around the country and weather conditions supported survival of the virus. The consequence was multiple, effectively primary, introductions Of FMD virus into major sheep-keeping areas. Subsequent local spread from these introductions accounted for the majority of cases. The largest local epidemics were in areas with dense sheep populations and livestock dealers who were active during the key period. Most affected farms kept both sheep and cattle. At the time of writing the epidemic was still ongoing; however, this paper provides a basis for scientific discussion of the first five months.