Human movement, cooperation and the effectiveness of coordinated vector control strategies
Human movement, cooperation and the effectiveness of coordinated vector control strategies
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2017.0336
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发表时间：
2017-08-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Fefferman, Nina H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stone, Chris M.;Schwab, Samantha R.;Fefferman, Nina H.
病媒传播的典型特征往往是高度集中的传播，并受到宿主和病媒在不同尺度上移动的影响。对导致集合种群动态的生态和环境条件（包括人类通过病媒控制方案造成的生态和环境条件）仍然知之甚少。鉴于最近登革热、基孔肯雅和寨卡病毒的流行，制定控制战略，最有效地限制这种动态的爆发，这一点尤为紧迫。我们开发了一个随机的，空间模型的病媒传播疾病的传播，允许移动的主机之间的补丁。我们的模型适用于埃及伊蚊在城市环境中的虫媒病毒传播，并进行了参数化，特别是捕捉寨卡病毒传播。使用模拟，我们研究了在何种程度上两个方面的矢量控制策略受到人类通勤模式：相邻社区之间的协调和合作的程度。我们发现，传输强度是最高的主机移动的中间水平。相邻斑块之间控制活动的协调在多大程度上降低了感染流行率，这既受到人类通勤频率的影响，也受到致力于病媒监测和控制活动的相邻斑块比例的影响。在高水平的主机移动，补丁，不有助于病媒控制可能会作为感染源的景观，但有相当的流行程度的补丁，合作。这一结果表明，邻国之间的真实的合作将是至关重要的有效的积极主动的战略，为媒介传播的疾病控制在今天的通勤连接的社区。
Vector-borne disease transmission is often typified by highly focal transmission and influenced by movement of hosts and vectors across different scales. The ecological and environmental conditions (including those created by humans through vector control programmes) that result in metapopulation dynamics remain poorly understood. The development of control strategies that would most effectively limit outbreaks given such dynamics is particularly urgent given the recent epidemics of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses. We developed a stochastic, spatial model of vector-borne disease transmission, allowing for movement of hosts between patches. Our model is applicable to arbovirus transmission by Aedes aegypti in urban settings and was parametrized to capture Zika virus transmission in particular. Using simulations, we investigated the extent to which two aspects of vector control strategies are affected by human commuting patterns: the extent of coordination and cooperation between neighbouring communities. We find that transmission intensity is highest at intermediate levels of host movement. The extent to which coordination of control activities among neighbouring patches decreases the prevalence of infection is affected by both how frequently humans commute and the proportion of neighbouring patches that commits to vector surveillance and control activities. At high levels of host movement, patches that do not contribute to vector control may act as sources of infection in the landscape, yet have comparable levels of prevalence as patches that do cooperate. This result suggests that real cooperation among neighbours will be critical to the development of effective pro-active strategies for vector-borne disease control in today's commuter-linked communities.