Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: The role of education in the study of first childbearing
Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: The role of education in the study of first childbearing
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DOI：
10.4054/demres.2006.15.16
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发表时间：
2006-11-29
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Kreyenfeld, Michaela
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hoem, Jan M.;Kreyenfeld, Michaela
试图通过未来结果(预期分析)来解释当前行为的程序构成了生命历程分析中一种广泛但有问题的方法，因为它们扰乱了时间的作用和事件的时间顺序。尽管如此，这种做法经常被使用，尤其是因为它很容易产生有用的总结衡量标准，如首次生育年龄中值和各种教育群体中永久无子女的比例，以最终达到的标准来定义。我们用一个实证例子来说明所涉及的问题，并提出了一种可供选择的“非预测性”研究策略，该策略利用了最常收集的不完整数据。后一种方法的一个缺点是，为了让事情发挥作用，它建立在可能不现实的假设之上，而且它仍然不能同样容易地提供总结措施。除了更好的数据收集，没有令人满意的替代方案。
Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes ( anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy that makes use of the incomplete data most commonly collected. A weakness of the latter method is that to make things work it builds on assumptions that may be unrealistic, and still it does not equally easily provide summary measures. There is no satisfactory alternative to better data collection.