Impacts of ozone and climate change on yields of perennial crops in California
Impacts of ozone and climate change on yields of perennial crops in California
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DOI：
10.1038/s43016-020-0043-8
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
23.2
通讯作者：
Davis, Steven J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hong, Chaopeng;Mueller, Nathaniel D.;Davis, Steven J.
温度和空气污染的变化影响农业生产力，但是大多数相关的研究集中在主要的一年生作物上（例如小麦、玉米、大豆和水稻）。相比之下，人们对气候变化和空气质量对水果和坚果等多年生作物的影响知之甚少，这些作物对饮食多样性和营养很重要，按经济价值计算，它们占加州农业的38%。此外，多年生作物的适应能力可能受到其寿命长和有时种植成本高的限制。在此，基于历史数据的统计建模和缩小比例的气候模型预测，我们共同评估了气候和臭氧水平对加州多年生作物历史和未来产量的影响。尽管迄今为止，气候变暖对许多多年生作物的影响在统计上并不显著，但大多数多年生作物的产量对环境臭氧表现出显著的负响应，从草莓的-2%到鲜食葡萄的-22%不等，这意味着每年的总损失约为10亿美元。这表明，加州空气质量的历史改善，减少了臭氧暴露，可能对该州的多年生作物产量产生了巨大的、未计算的协同效益，进一步减少污染可能会带来额外的收益。事实上，高产量和高臭氧破坏区域的共存表明，通过减少污染来提高作物产量的机会很大。
Changes in temperature and air pollution affect agricultural productivity, but most relevant research has focused on major annual crops (for example, wheat, maize, soy and rice). In contrast, relatively little is known about the effects of climate change and air quality on perennial crops such as fruits and nuts, which are important to dietary diversity and nutrition, and represent similar to 38% of California's agriculture by economic value. Moreover, the adaptive capacity of perennial crops may be limited by their long lifespans and sometimes large establishment costs. Here, on the basis of statistical modelling of historical data and downscaled climate model projections, we jointly assess the impacts of climate and ozone levels on historical and future yields of perennial crops in California. Although the effects of warming to date are not statistically significant for many perennial crops, the yields of most perennials show a significant negative response to ambient ozone, ranging from -2% for strawberries to -22% for table grapes, implying total losses of roughly US$1 billion per year. This suggests that historical improvements in California's air quality that reduced ozone exposures may have had large, unaccounted co-benefits for the state's perennial crop yields, and further pollution reduction could create additional gains. Indeed, the co-location of regions with high production and high ozone damage indicates that opportunities to improve crop yields through pollution mitigation are large.