The emergence of sub-replacement family size ideals in Europe
The emergence of sub-replacement family size ideals in Europe
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DOI：
10.1023/b:popu.0000020962.80895.4a
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发表时间：
2003-12-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Testa, MR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goldstein, J;Lutz, W;Testa, MR
在1970年代和1980年代，大多数西欧国家的时期生育率开始大幅下降到更替水平以下，而大多数生育率调查、价值研究和民意测验发现，被认为对社会或对自己家庭理想的子女数目仍然保持在每名妇女两个以上。这些调查使人们预期，欧洲的经期生育率迟早会恢复。然而，2001年欧洲晴雨表调查的最新数据显示，在欧洲德语区，年轻男性和女性给出的平均理想家庭规模已降至1.7个孩子。本文检验了这些新发现的一致性和可信性，如果它们确实是一种新趋势的迹象，可能会改变目前关于欧洲未来生育趋势的讨论。
Period fertility started to drop significantly below replacement in most Western European countries during the 1970s and 1980s, while most fertility surveys, value studies and opinion polls have found that the number of children considered ideal for society or for one's own family has remained above two children per woman. These surveys have led to the expectation that, sooner or later, period fertility would recover in Europe. The most recent data from the Eurobarometer 2001 survey, however, suggest that in the German-speaking parts of Europe the average ideal family sizes given by younger men and women have fallen as low as 1.7 children. This paper examines the consistency and the credibility of these new findings, which - if they are indeed indications of a new trend - may alter the current discussion about future fertility trends in Europe.