Suicides and accidents on birthdays: Evidence from Japan
Suicides and accidents on birthdays: Evidence from Japan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.04.034
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发表时间：
2016-06-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Ueda, Michiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Matsubayashi, Tetsuya;Ueda, Michiko
这项研究使用大量的全国死亡率数据来研究人们在生日当天和生日前后是否有更高的死亡风险。我们研究了1974年至2014年期间在日本死于主要外部原因的2，073，656人的死亡记录。泊松回归分析显示，人们在生日当天死亡的可能性比其他任何日历日都高，其方式包括自杀、交通事故、意外福尔斯跌落、溺水和窒息。特别是对于自杀案件，人们在生日当天死亡的可能性比其他日期高出50%。无论性别、婚姻状况和死亡年龄如何，都观察到生日死亡人数过多。对于自杀死亡，我们的研究结果为“生日忧郁”假设提供了强有力的支持，该假设预测了生日的过度死亡。然而，关于交通事故和其他意外事故，我们的研究结果表明，生日时死亡人数过多可能与生日庆祝有关。对于老年人口，我们的分析表明，与生日庆祝活动相关的特殊活动，通常涉及外出消费节日食品和饮料，可能是导致生日意外死亡人数突然增加的原因。相比之下，20多岁生日的人的机动车事故数量明显急剧增加，这可能是由于生日庆祝活动涉及驾驶和饮酒。(C)2016爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
This study examined whether people have a higher risk of death on and around their birthday using a large national mortality data. We examined 2,073,656 death records of individuals who died in Japan from major external causes between 1974 and 2014. Poisson regression analysis showed that people were more likely to die on their birthday than on any other calendar day by means of suicide, traffic accidents, accidental falls, drowning, and choking. For suicide cases in particular, people are 50% more likely to die on their birthday compared to any other dates. Excess deaths on birthdays were observed regardless of gender, marital status, and age-at-death subgroups. For suicide deaths, our results provided strong support for the "birthday blues" hypothesis that predicts excess deaths on birthdays. With regards to traffic accidents and other unintentional accidents, however, our results suggest that excess deaths on birthdays may be related to birthday celebrations. For the elderly population, our analysis indicates that special activities associated with birthday celebrations, which often involves going out to consume festive food and drinks, may be contributors to a sudden increase in the number of accidental deaths on their birthday. In contrast, a notably sharp increase in the number of motor vehicle accidents was observed for individuals in the 20s on their birthday, which may be attributable to birthday celebrations that involved both driving and drinking. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.