Decision-making from probability forecasts based on forecast value
Decision-making from probability forecasts based on forecast value
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DOI：
10.1017/s1350482702003043
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发表时间：
2002-09-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Mylne, KR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mylne, KR
描述了一种估计天气预报对决策的经济价值的方法。该方法最近已用于面向用户的概率预测验证，但这里应用于帮助预测用户根据概率预测优化其决策。对于概率预测或确定性预测，可以以相同的方式计算价值，从而为用户提供在节省金钱方面的每个价值的直接比较，这比大多数标准验证分数更相关。使用 ECMWF 集合预测系统生成的特定地点概率预测和 ECMWF 高分辨率全球模型的确定性预测来说明该方法。研究发现，对于大多数预测事件和大多数用户来说，概率预测比更高分辨率模型的确定性预测具有更大的价值。
A method of estimating the economic value of weather forecasts for decision-making is described. This method has recently been used for user-oriented verification of probability forecasts, but is here applied to aid forecast users in optimising their decision-making from probability forecasts. Value may be calculated in the same way for either probability forecasts or deterministic forecasts, and thus provides the user with a direct comparison of the value of each in terms of money saved, which is more relevant than most standard verification scores. The method is illustrated using site-specific probability forecasts generated from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system and deterministic forecasts from the ECMWF high-resolution global model. It is found that for most forecast events and for most users the probability forecasts have greater value than the deterministic forecasts from a higher resolution model.