A modeling and experiment framework for the emergency management in AHC transmission.
A modeling and experiment framework for the emergency management in AHC transmission.
复制标题
AHC输电应急管理建模与实验框架
DOI：
10.1155/2014/897532
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Liu X
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen B;Ge Y;Zhang L;Zhang Y;Zhong Z;Liu X
应急管理是寻求最大限度地减少甚至消除突发事件危害的有效途径的关键，但目前还没有一种量化的方法来对突发事件进行计算研究。统计算法，如传染病传播的易感染恢复（SIR）模型，忽略了许多细节，从而总是影响突发事件的传播。在本文中，我们首先提出了一个基于Agent的建模和实验框架，以模拟真实的世界的紧急事件。真实的世界的模型称为人工社会，它由Agent模型、Agent活动模型和环境模型组成，采用有限状态自动机（FSA）作为建模范式。最后，构建了一个人工校园，通过一系列实验分析了急性出血性结膜炎（AHC）传播的关键因素，以说明该方法在应急管理中的作用。通过实验评价，给出了应急管理的干预措施及其可选配置（如隔离期）。
Emergency management is crucial to finding effective ways to minimize or even eliminate the damage of emergent events, but there still exists no quantified method to study the events by computation. Statistical algorithms, such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models on epidemic transmission, ignore many details, thus always influencing the spread of emergent events. In this paper, we first propose an agent-based modeling and experiment framework to model the real world with the emergent events. The model of the real world is called artificial society, which is composed of agent model, agent activity model, and environment model, and it employs finite state automata (FSA) as its modeling paradigm. An artificial campus, on which a series of experiments are done to analyze the key factors of the acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) transmission, is then constructed to illustrate how our method works on the emergency management. Intervention measures and optional configurations (such as the isolation period) of them for the emergency management are also given through the evaluations in these experiments.