The Day After Tomorrow: The Looming Post-Exascale Crisis
The Day After Tomorrow: The Looming Post-Exascale Crisis
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后天：迫在眉睫的后百亿亿次危机
DOI：
10.1109/ipdps.2018.00080
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
B. Hendrickson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Hendrickson
这是高性能计算的最佳时代。我们的模拟在复杂性和精密性方面不断增长，它们推动了物理科学和工程的进步，以无数种方式改善了世界。在全球范围内，多个计划正在进行中，以在2020年初实现百亿亿次的性能。尽管仍然存在相当大的挑战，但我们似乎可以通过熟悉的技术和编程模型达到百亿亿次。但是，尽管近期前景光明，但重大问题仍摆在面前。由于Dennard扩展早已过时，设备技术无法挽救我们对10exaflop机器的严重电力需求。随着摩尔定律逐渐走向终结，每一代新芯片的性能并没有得到太大改善。人们对量子计算、可逆计算和其他新奇概念的前景感到相当兴奋。但这些似乎在许多年内都不会成为通用的计算方法，如果有的话。
This is the best of times for high-performance computing. Our simulations continue to grow in complexity and sophistication, and they drive progress in the physical sciences and engineering, improving the world in myriad ways. Around the globe multiple plans are underway to achieve exascale performance by the early 2020's. Although considerable challenges remain, it seems that we can get to the exascale with familiar technologies and programming models. But while the immediate future looks bright, significant problems lie ahead. With Dennard scaling long-dead, device technologies won't save us from crippling power requirements for a 10 exaflop machine. And with Moore's Law sputtering towards end-of-life, performance is not improving much with each new generation of chips. There has been considerable excitement about the promise of quantum computing, reversible computing and other exotic concepts. But it seems likely that these will not become general-purpose approaches to computing for many years, if ever.