A data-driven model of an emergency department
A data-driven model of an emergency department
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DOI：
10.1016/j.orhc.2016.11.001
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发表时间：
2017-03-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Zhang, Xiaopei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Whitt, Ward;Zhang, Xiaopei
本文基于对以色列Rambam医院艾德的个体患者到达时间和住院时间的数据的仔细研究，开发了急诊科（艾德）的聚合随机模型，Armony等人（2015）将其用于大规模探索性数据分析。这个数据集是特别感兴趣的，因为它已经公开，使实验是可重复的。我们的分析证实了以前的结论随时间变化的到达率及其后果，但我们也发现，从艾德和病人的住院时间分布的概率入院到内部病房应该是随时间变化的。我们的分析最终在一个新的时变infiniteserver聚合随机模型的艾德，其中的逗留时间分布和到达率是周期性的超过一个星期。(C)2016爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
This paper develops an aggregate stochastic model of an emergency department (ED) based on a careful study of data on individual patient arrival times and length of stay in the ED of the Rambam Hospital in Israel, which was used in a large-scale exploratory data analysis by Armony et al. (2015). This data set is of special interest because it has been made publicly available, so that the experiments are reproducible. Our analysis confirms the previous conclusions about the time-varying arrival rate and its consequences, but we also find that the probability of admission to an internal ward from the ED and the patient length-ofstay distribution should be time varying as well. Our analysis culminates in a new time-varying infiniteserver aggregate stochastic model of the ED, where both the length-of-stay distribution and the arrival rate are periodic over a week. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.