Impact of satellite observations on forecasting sudden stratospheric warmings
Impact of satellite observations on forecasting sudden stratospheric warmings
复制标题
卫星观测对预测平流层突然变暖的影响
DOI：
10.1029/2019gl086233
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
and C. Kobayashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Noguchi;S.;Y. Kuroda;H. Mukougawa;R. Mizuta;and C. Kobayashi
通过集合预报试验，研究了卫星资料同化对平流层突然变暖(SSW)长期预报的影响。我们使用了两个日本新的再分析产品：日本55年再分析(JRA-55)及其仅同化常规观测的子集(JRA-55C)。对两个集合预报的SSW重现性的比较检验表明，卫星观测对SSW开始前5天开始的预报的影响很大，JRA-55C预报的准确率降低了20%。此外，一些涡旋分裂SSW的预报显示出突然出现的深差异，这种差异在平流层低层持续几个月以上，并对地面气候产生显著影响。这些结果突出了中平流层和平流层上层环流在SSW的发生和发展中的重要作用。
The observational impacts of satellite data assimilation on extended‐range forecasts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are investigated by conducting ensemble forecast experiments. We use two Japanese novel reanalysis products: the Japanese 55‐year reanalysis (JRA‐55) and its subset that assimilates conventional observations only (JRA‐55C). A comparative examination on the reproducibility for SSWs between the two ensemble forecasts reveals that the impact of satellite observations is significant for forecasts starting 5 days before the SSW onset, with 20% less accuracy in the JRA‐55C forecasts. Moreover, some of forecasts of vortex‐splitting SSWs show a sudden appearance of deep difference, which lasts over a few months in the lower stratosphere and significantly affects the surface climate. These results highlight an important role of mesospheric and upper stratospheric circulations on the onset and development of SSWs.