Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns
Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021
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发表时间：
2021-07-06
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Nicholls, Robert J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Camus, Paula;Haigh, Ivan D.;Nicholls, Robert J.
在沿海地区，洪水可能是由多种驱动因素共同引发的，包括直接地表径流、河流泄洪、风暴潮和波浪。在本研究中，我们使用具有相干强迫（即 ERA5）的最先进数据库分析了欧洲和周边地区由这四个主要洪水源引起的复合洪水潜力。首先，我们分析复合洪水潜力对几个因素的敏感性：（1）采样方法，（2）选择条件驱动因素并发事件的时间窗口，（3）依赖性指标，以及（4）波浪驱动的海平面定义。我们观察到使用年度最大值的相关系数高于阈值峰值的相关系数。关于其他因素，我们的结果显示复合洪水潜力的空间分布相似。其次，使用 Kendall 等级相关系数和联合出现来合成驱动器对之间的依赖性，以使用聚类技术来合成复合洪水潜力的相干模式。这种定量的多驱动因素评估不仅可以区分总体复合洪水潜力最高的地方，还可以区分哪些驱动因素组合更有可能导致复合洪水。我们确定复合洪水潜力的热点位于北大西洋南部海岸和地中海北部海岸。
In coastal regions, floods can arise through a combination of multiple drivers, including direct surface run-off, river discharge, storm surge, and waves. In this study, we analyse compound flood potential in Europe and environs caused by these four main flooding sources using state-of-the-art databases with coherent forcing (i.e. ERA5). First, we analyse the sensitivity of the compound flooding potential to several factors: (1) sampling method, (2) time window to select the concurrent event of the conditioned driver, (3) dependence metrics, and (4) wave-driven sea level definition. We observe higher correlation coefficients using annual maxima than peaks over threshold. Regarding the other factors, our results show similar spatial distributions of the compound flooding potential. Second, the dependence between the pairs of drivers using the Kendall rank correlation coefficient and the joint occurrence are synthesized for coherent patterns of compound flooding potential using a clustering technique. This quantitative multi-driver assessment not only distinguishes where overall compound flooding potential is the highest, but also discriminates which driver combinations are more likely to contribute to compound flooding. We identify that hotspots of compound flooding potential are located along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea.