Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy
Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy
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增长、周期和稳定政策
DOI：
10.1093/oep/gpi012
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Alessandra Pelloni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Blackburn;Alessandra Pelloni
本文以研究短期货币稳定政策的长期影响为目的，分析了经济增长和经济周期的共同决定因素。该分析基于一个简单的随机增长模型，在该模型中，由于名义刚性（工资合同）和内生技术（边做边学），实际冲击和名义冲击都会对产出产生永久性影响。结果表明，无论波动来源如何，产出增长的均值和方差之间都存在负相关关系。研究还表明，尽管如此，根据扰动的类型，短期稳定和长期增长之间可能存在冲突。最后，从福利的角度来看，最优货币政策是使长期增长最大化而不考虑稳定因素的政策。
This paper presents an analysis of the joint determination of growth and business cycles with the view to studying the long-run implications of short-term monetary stabilization policy. The analysis is based on a simple stochastic growth model in which both real and nominal shocks have permanent effects on output due to nominal rigidities (wage contracts) and an endogenous technology (learning-by-doing). It is shown that there is a negative correlation between the mean and variance of output growth irrespective of the source of fluctuations. It is also shown that, in spite of this, there may exist a conflict between short-term stabilization and long-term growth depending on the type of disturbance. Finally, it is shown that, from a welfare perspective, the optimal monetary policy is that policy which maximizes long-run growth to the exclusion of stabilization considerations.