A MIXTURE OF EXPERTS MODEL FOR RANK DATA WITH APPLICATIONS IN ELECTION STUDIES
A MIXTURE OF EXPERTS MODEL FOR RANK DATA WITH APPLICATIONS IN ELECTION STUDIES
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DOI：
10.1214/08-aoas178
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发表时间：
2008-12-01
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Murphy, Thomas Brendan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gormley, Isobel Claire;Murphy, Thomas Brendan
投票集团被定义为具有相似投票偏好的一组选民。爱尔兰选民分裂成投票集团是一个有趣的现象。爱尔兰选举采用“单一可转移投票”选举制度，在这一制度下，选民按照偏好对部分或全部候选人进行排名。这些等级投票提供了丰富的偏好信息来源，从中可以推断选民的组成。此外，还研究了社会因素或协变量对选民构成的影响。混合专家模型是指模型参数为协变量函数的混合模型。混合专家模型的排名数据提供了一个基于模型的方法来聚类爱尔兰选民到投票集团，研究社会因素对这种聚类的影响，并检查投票集团的特征偏好。秩数据的Benter模型被用作专家混合模型中的组分密度族;广义线性模型理论被用来模拟协变量油混合比例的影响。通过EM和MM算法的混合实现模型拟合。一个例子的方法说明了检查所有爱尔兰总统选举。选民中存在着投票集团，年龄和对政府的满意程度是影响这次选举投票的重要因素。
A voting bloc is defined to be a group of voters who have similar voting preferences. The cleavage of the Irish electorate into voting blocs is of interest. Irish elections employ a "single transferable vote" electoral systems under this system voters rank some or all of the electoral candidates in order of preference. These rank votes provide a rich source of preference information from which inferences about the composition of the electorate may be drawn. Additionally, the influence of social factors or covariates on the electorate composition is of interest.A mixture of experts model is a mixture model in which the model parameters are functions of covariates. A mixture of experts model for rank data is developed to provide a model-based method to cluster Irish voters into voting blocs, to examine the influence of social factors on this clustering and to examine the characteristic preferences of the voting blocs. The Benter model for rank data is employed as the family of component densities within the mixture of experts model; generalized linear model theory is employed to model the influence of covariates oil the mixing proportions. Model fitting is achieved via a hybrid of the EM and MM algorithms. An example of the methodology is illustrated by examining all Irish presidential election. The existence of voting blocs in the electorate is established and it is determined that age and government satisfaction levels are important factors influencing voting in this election.