Decision making under uncertainty in the retrofit analysis of the UK housing stock: Implications for the Green Deal
Decision making under uncertainty in the retrofit analysis of the UK housing stock: Implications for the Green Deal
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.05.014
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发表时间：
2013-09
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
A. Booth;R. Choudhary
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Booth;R. Choudhary
为了减少碳排放和缓解燃料匮乏，联合王国政府提出了“绿色交易”的建议，以帮助提供资金，对联合王国现有住房实行具有成本效益的改造措施。然而，绿色交易提案有可能产生金融风险，因为可能高估了改造措施带来的能源节约。本文提出了一个框架，用于处理与这些节能预测相关的不确定性，以及演示如何在面对住房存量改造分析中涉及的不确定性时做出决策。拟议的框架适用于一套住房的案例研究，可以看出，有限的措施将符合这些住房的绿色交易提案的成本效益;因此，如果要考虑到更高的影响措施是可行的，将需要补贴。然而，最后还可以看到，减少碳排放和改善热舒适度等额外社会效益的货币价值可能超过任何补贴的成本。
In order to reduce carbon emissions and alleviate fuel poverty, the UK Government has outlined proposals for a “Green Deal” to help provide financing for the installation of cost-effective retrofit measures to the existing UK housing stock. However, the Green Deal proposals have the potential to generate financial risk, due to a possible overestimation of the energy savings arising from retrofit measures. This paper proposes a framework for handling the uncertainties associated with the prediction of these energy savings, as well as demonstrating how decisions can be made in the face of the uncertainties involved in the retrofit analysis of a housing stock. The proposed framework is applied to a case study set of dwellings and it is seen that a limited range of measures will be cost-effective under the Green Deal proposals for these dwellings; as a result, subsidies will be required if higher impact measures are to be considered viable. Finally, however, it is also seen that the monetary value of additional societal benefits, such as reduced carbon emissions and improved thermal comfort, is likely to more than outweigh the cost of any subsidies.