Host phylogenetic distance drives trends in virus virulence and transmissibility across the animal-human interface
Host phylogenetic distance drives trends in virus virulence and transmissibility across the animal-human interface
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2019.0296
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发表时间：
2019-09-30
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Brook, Cara E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guth, Sarah;Visher, Elisa;Brook, Cara E.
从历史上看，评估“人畜共患风险”的努力主要集中在量化动物宿主病毒跨物种出现的可能性。然而，病毒的相对负担明显不同，无论是在发病率和死亡率（毒力）方面，还是在人与人之间持续传播的能力方面。扩展了之前发布的数据库，我们描述了宿主和病毒特征，这些特征可预测与病毒溢出相关的人类死亡率、病毒溢出后在人类之间传播的能力以及特定病毒成为人畜共患的可能性。我们证明，宿主与人类的系统发育距离的增加与人类死亡率呈正相关，但与人类传播能力呈负相关，这表明从高系统发育距离的宿主中出现的病毒诱导的毒力可能会限制人类传播的能力。我们的主要结果是，与人类关系最密切的宿主携带的人畜共患病的发病率和死亡率影响较低，而关系最远的宿主，特别是翼手目（蝙蝠），则携带高毒力的人畜共患病，在人类宿主中流行的能力较低。总的来说，我们的结果强调了了解人畜共患疾病如何在人群中表现的重要性，并强调了与溢出中的多宿主传播链相关的潜在风险。本文是主题“了解病原体溢出的动态和综合方法”的一部分。
Historically, efforts to assess 'zoonotic risk' have focused mainly on quantifying the potential for cross-species emergence of viruses from animal hosts. However, viruses clearly differ in relative burden, both in terms of morbidity and mortality (virulence) incurred and the capacity for sustained human-to-human transmission. Extending previously published databases, we delineated host and viral traits predictive of human mortality associated with viral spillover, viral capacity to transmit between humans following spillover and the probability of a given virus being zoonotic. We demonstrate that increasing host phylogenetic distance from humans positively correlates with human mortality but negatively correlates with human transmissibility, suggesting that the virulence induced by viruses emerging from hosts at high phylogenetic distance may limit capacity for human transmission. Our key result is that hosts most closely related to humans harbour zoonoses of lower impact in terms of morbidity and mortality, while the most distantly related hosts-in particular, order Chiroptera (bats)-harbour highly virulent zoonoses with a lower capacity for endemic establishment in human hosts. As a whole, our results emphasize the importance of understanding how zoonoses manifest in the human population and also highlight potential risks associated with multi-host transmission chains in spillover.This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.