Comparing SARS-CoV-2 with SARS-CoV and influenza pandemics
Comparing SARS-CoV-2 with SARS-CoV and influenza pandemics
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DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30484-9
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
影响因子：
56.3
通讯作者：
Simonsen, Lone
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Petersen, Eskild;Koopmans, Marion;Simonsen, Lone
本个人观点的目的是比较严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)与其他流行冠状病毒，如严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒(SARS-CoV)、中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒(MERS-CoV)和大流行流感病毒的传播率、住院率和死亡率。SARS-CoV-2的基本繁殖率(R-0)估计为2.5(1.8-3.6)，而SARS-CoV和1918年流感大流行为2.0-3.0，MERS-CoV为0.9,2009年流感大流行为1.5。SARS-CoV-2在大多数情况下会导致轻微或无症状的疾病；然而，严重到危重的疾病发生在一小部分感染者身上，70岁以上的人的发病率最高。各国测量的病死率不同，可能是因为检测策略不同。基于人口的死亡率估计在欧洲各地差异很大，从零到高不等。来自意大利第一个受影响地区伦巴第区的数据显示，全年龄死亡率为每10万人口154人。差异很可能是由于不同的人口结构等因素造成的。然而，这种新病毒具有局部性传播；因此，一些地区的疾病负担更高，受影响的程度比其他地区更大，原因仍不清楚。尽管如此，早期引入严格的物理距离和卫生措施已被证明在大幅降低R-0和相关死亡率方面有效，并在一定程度上解释了地理差异。
The objective of this Personal View is to compare transmissibility, hospitalisation, and mortality rates for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with those of other epidemic coronaviruses, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and pandemic influenza viruses. The basic reproductive rate (R-0) for SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be 2.5 (range 1.8-3.6) compared with 2.0-3.0 for SARS-CoV and the 1918 influenza pandemic, 0.9 for MERS-CoV, and 1.5 for the 2009 influenza pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 causes mild or asymptomatic disease in most cases; however, severe to critical illness occurs in a small proportion of infected individuals, with the highest rate seen in people older than 70 years. The measured case fatality rate varies between countries, probably because of differences in testing strategies. Population-based mortality estimates vary widely across Europe, ranging from zero to high. Numbers from the first affected region in Italy, Lombardy, show an all age mortality rate of 154 per 100 000 population. Differences are most likely due to varying demographic structures, among other factors. However, this new virus has a focal dissemination; therefore, some areas have a higher disease burden and are affected more than others for reasons that are still not understood. Nevertheless, early introduction of strict physical distancing and hygiene measures have proven effective in sharply reducing R-0 and associated mortality and could in part explain the geographical differences.