Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections
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DOI：
10.1002/jgrd.50188
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发表时间：
2013-03-27
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Bronaugh, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sillmann, J.;Kharin, V. V.;Bronaugh, D.
本研究概述了气候变化探测和指数专家组（ETCCDI）确定的极端气候指数的预计变化。基于温度和降水的指数是使用耦合模式相互比较项目第3阶段（CMIP 3）和第5阶段（CMIP 5）多模式集合中不同排放情景，采用一致的气候变化模拟方法计算的。我们分析了全球和区域范围内的指数在21世纪相对于参考期1981-2000年的变化。一般而言，基于每日最低温度的指数变化比基于每日最高温度的指数变化更明显。极端降水量通常比总湿日降水量增加得更快。在澳大利亚、中美洲、南非和地中海等地区，连续干旱日数的增加与强降水日数和最大连续5天降水量的减少相吻合，这表明未来干旱状况将加剧。特别是对于基于降水量的指数，在某些地区，模型之间的变化迹象可能存在很大的分歧。在RCP8.5下，温度和降水指数的变化最为明显，预计的变化超过了以前基于SRES情景的研究中讨论的变化。通过ETCCDI指数档案提供了一套完整的指数，以鼓励进一步研究极端变化的各个方面。引文：Sillmann，J.，V. V. Kharin，F. W.兹维尔，X. Zhang和D.布罗诺（2013），CMIP 5多模式集合中的气候极端指数：第2部分。未来气候预测，J. Geophys。剩余大气：118，2473-2493，doi：10.1002/jgrd.50188。
This study provides an overview of projected changes in climate extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The temperature-and precipitation-based indices are computed with a consistent methodology for climate change simulations using different emission scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensembles. We analyze changes in the indices on global and regional scales over the 21st century relative to the reference period 1981-2000. In general, changes in indices based on daily minimum temperatures are found to be more pronounced than in indices based on daily maximum temperatures. Extreme precipitation generally increases faster than total wet-day precipitation. In regions, such as Australia, Central America, South Africa, and the Mediterranean, increases in consecutive dry days coincide with decreases in heavy precipitation days and maximum consecutive 5 day precipitation, which indicates future intensification of dry conditions. Particularly for the precipitation-based indices, there can be a wide disagreement about the sign of change between the models in some regions. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are most pronounced under RCP8.5, with projected changes exceeding those discussed in previous studies based on SRES scenarios. The complete set of indices is made available via the ETCCDI indices archive to encourage further studies on the various aspects of changes in extremes. Citation: Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and D. Bronaugh (2013), Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2473-2493, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50188.