Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects
Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.021
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发表时间：
2011-06
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
S. Park;Jongwoan Kim;D. Lee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Park;Jongwoan Kim;D. Lee
为了应对气候变化，氢燃料电池汽车（HFCV）的开发和部署变得越来越重要。在本研究中，我们开发了基于广义巴斯扩散模型的 HFCV 预测模型和使用系统动力学的仿真模型。通过开发的模型，我们可以预测韩国 HFCV 的饱和度可以比美国提前 12 年。还对HFCV降价率、加氢站数量等外部变量进行了敏感性分析。本研究的结果可以深入了解外部变量对 HFCV 市场渗透率的影响，并且所开发的模型也可以应用于分析 HFCV 扩散效应的其他研究。
In order to cope with climate change, the development and deployment of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs) is becoming more important. In this study, we developed a forecasting model for HFCVs based on the generalized Bass diffusion model and a simulation model using system dynamics. Through the developed model, we could forecast that the saturation of HFCVs in Korea can be moved up 12 years compared with the US. A sensitivity analysis on external variables such as price reduction rates of HFCVs and number of hydrogen refueling stations is also conducted. The results of this study can give insights on the effects of external variables on the market penetration of HFCVs, and the developed model can also be applied to other studies in analyzing the diffusion effects of HFCVs.