Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years
Spatiotemporal risk mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease and its association with meteorological variables in children under 5 years
复制标题
5岁以下儿童手足口病时空风险图及其与气象变量的关联
DOI：
10.1017/s0950268817001984
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Xiao, G. X.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xu, C. D.;Xiao, G. X.
手足口病（HFMD）风险已成为东北亚最大城市群京津冀地区日益关注的问题。本研究分析了手足口病的时空流行病学特征，并采用贝叶斯时空层次模型检测当地的空间相对危险度（RR），评估气象因素对手足口病的影响。2009 - 2013年，手足口病风险存在明显的季节性规律。最高风险期为夏季，平均月发病率为4.17/10（3），而冬季指数为0.16/10（3）。气象变量影响手足口病的时间变化。气温上升1摄氏度与手足口病增加11.5%相关（相应RR 1.122）。相对湿度每上升1%，手足口病病例数增加9.51%（相应RR 1.100）。气压每增加1 hPa，手足口病发病率下降0.11%（相应RR为0.999）。日照时间每增加1小时，手足口病发病率增加0.28%（相对危险度为1.003）。风速每上升1 m/s，手足口病发病率增加6.2%（相应RR 1.064）。高风险地区主要是大城市，如北京、天津、石家庄及其周边地区。这些发现有助于风险控制和疾病预防政策的实施。
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) risk has become an increasing concern in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which is the biggest urban agglomeration in north-eastern Asia. In the study, spatiotemporal epidemiological features of HFMD were analysed, and a Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was used to detect local spatial relative risk (RR) and to assess the effect of meteorological factors. From 2009 to 2013, there was an obvious seasonal pattern of HFMD risk. The highest risk period was in the summer, with an average monthly incidence of 4.17/10(3), whereas the index in wintertime was 0.16/10(3). Meteorological variables influenced temporal changes in HFMD. A 1 degrees C rise in air temperature was associated with an 11.5% increase in HFMD (corresponding RR 1.122). A 1% rise in relative humidity was related to a 9.51% increase in the number of HFMD cases (corresponding RR 1.100). A 1 hPa increment in air pressure was related to a 0.11% decrease in HFMD (corresponding RR 0.999). A 1 h increase in sunshine was associated with a 0.28% rise in HFMD cases (corresponding RR 1.003). A 1 m/s rise in wind speed was related to a 6.2% increase in HFMD (corresponding RR 1.064). High-risk areas were mainly large cities, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and their neighbouring areas. These findings can contribute to risk control and implementation of disease-prevention policies.