Modelling the effects of awareness-based interventions to control the mosaic disease of Jatropha curcas
Modelling the effects of awareness-based interventions to control the mosaic disease of Jatropha curcas
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecocom.2018.07.004
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Ray, Santanu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Al Basir, Fahad;Blyuss, Konstantin B.;Ray, Santanu
植物病害造成巨大的、有时是毁灭性的经济和社会成本，因此是稳定和可持续农业生产的主要限制因素。在粮食安全和收入严重依赖农业的发展中国家，农作物病害尤其严重。已经开发了各种技术来减少植物病害的负面影响并消除相关的寄生虫，但这些方法的成功在很大程度上取决于人群的意识和参与疾病控制和预防计划的程度。在本文中，我们推导并分析了麻疯树花叶病的数学模型，麻疯树是一种重要的生物燃料植物，特别强调了以营养物质和杀虫剂形式进行干预的效果，这些干预的使用取决于人口的认识水平。该模型考虑了对疾病认识的两项贡献：全球认识运动和观察受感染植物的认识。找到了模型的所有稳态，并从系统参数的角度分析了模型的稳定性。我们确定了与疾病根除、稳定的地方性感染和感染水平的周期性振荡相关的参数区域。数值模拟结果支持了分析结果，说明了模型在不同动力状态下的行为。讨论了理论结果对实际实施疾病控制的影响。
Plant diseases are responsible for substantial and sometimes devastating economic and societal costs and thus are a major limiting factor for stable and sustainable agricultural production. Diseases of crops are particular crippling in developing countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture for food security and income. Various techniques have been developed to reduce the negative impact of plant diseases and eliminate the associated parasites, but the success of these approaches strongly depends on population awareness and the degree of engagement with disease control and prevention programs. In this paper we derive and analyse a mathematical model of mosaic disease of Jatropha curcas, an important biofuel plant, with particular emphasis on the effects of interventions in the form of nutrients and insecticides, whose use depends on the level of population awareness. Two contributions to disease awareness are considered in the model: global awareness campaigns, and awareness from observing infected plants. All steady states of the model are found, and their stability is analysed in terms of system parameters. We identify parameter regions associated with eradication of disease, stable endemic infection, and periodic oscillations in the level of infection. Analytical results are supported by numerical simulations that illustrate the behaviour of the model in different dynamical regimes. Implications of theoretical results for practical implementation of disease control are discussed.