Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming
Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming
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DOI：
10.1038/nature04246
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发表时间：
2006-01-12
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Young, BE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pounds, JA;Bustamante, MR;Young, BE
随着地球变暖，许多物种可能会消失，通常是因为疾病动态的变化。在这里，我们表明，最近与病原体爆发有关的大规模灭绝与全球变暖有关。17年前，在哥斯达黎加的山区，蒙特韦尔德小丑蛙（Atelopus sp.）沿着消失的还有金蟾蜍。估计在美洲热带特有的110种左右的Atelopus中，有67%遇到了同样的命运，并且涉及致病性壶菌（Batrachochytrium dendrobatim）。通过分析与海面和气温变化有关的损失时间，我们得出结论，“非常高的信心”（> 99%，根据政府间气候变化专门委员会，IPCC），大规模变暖是失踪的关键因素。我们建议，在许多高原地区的温度正在转向生长最佳的Batrachochytrium，从而鼓励爆发。随着气候变化引发传染病并侵蚀生物多样性，降低温室气体浓度的紧迫性现在是不可否认的。
As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog ( Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad ( Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (>99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.