A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050
A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-012-0500-y
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Navarro-Racines, Carlos E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ramirez-Villegas, Julian;Salazar, Mike;Navarro-Racines, Carlos E.
适应气候变化的政策措施包括努力调整社会经济和生态系统。自2001年加入《京都议定书》和1995年加入《联合国气候变化框架公约》以来，哥伦比亚在减缓和适应气候变化方面采取了各种措施。提交给《气候公约》的第一份国家信息通报指出，在不同的排放情景和时间框架下，哥伦比亚农业将如何受到严重影响。本文件中的分析进一步支持气候变化将严重威胁哥伦比亚农业的社会经济。我们首先查询国家数据来源，以描述农业部门的特征。然后，我们使用17个全球环流模型(GCM)的输出来量化气候变化对哥伦比亚农业生产的影响，并显示政府间气候变化专门委员会排放情景特别报告(SRES-A2)A2情景下2040-2069年(“2050年”)的预期变化，以及到2100年降水和气温的总体趋势。然后，我们评估不同地区的预期变化，并测量每种作物分布范围内受影响的面积比例。到2050年，哥伦比亚的气候变化可能会影响350万人，占全国农业GDP的14%，影响21%的人口的就业，影响农产工业、供应链以及粮食和营养安全。如果不采取适应措施，80%的作物将在目前60%以上的种植面积受到影响，对高价值多年生和可出口作物的影响尤其严重。影响还包括安第斯山坡的土壤退化和有机质流失；加勒比和太平洋沿岸可能发生的洪灾；咖啡、水果、可可和香蕉的生态位损失；病虫害流行的变化；以及非技术发达小农脆弱性的增加。然而，如果在脆弱部门采取多学科重点(即农学、经济和社会)，仍有时间改变目前的脆弱性水平。每个次级部门和政府需要在以下方面进行投资：(1)数据收集；(2)以区域为基础的详细影响评估；(3)研究和开发；(4)推广和技术转让。国家应在气候变化现象的背景下，以农业保险制度的形式向脆弱的小农提供支持。解决农业适应问题需要一个由(但不限于)农业和农村发展部牵头、国家和国际机构作出贡献的国家协调计划。
Policy measures regarding adaptation to climate change include efforts to adjust socio-economic and ecologic systems. Colombia has undertaken various measures in terms of climate change mitigation and adaptation since becoming a party of the Kyoto protocol in 2001 and a party of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995. The first national communication to the UNFCCC stated how Colombian agriculture will be severely impacted under different emission scenarios and time frames. The analyses in this document further support that climate change will severely threaten the socioeconomics of Colombian agriculture. We first query national data sources to characterize the agricultural sector. We then use 17 Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to quantify how Colombian agricultural production may be affected by climate change, and show the expected changes to years 2040-2069 ("2050") under the A2 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A2) and the overall trends in both precipitation and temperature to 2100. We then evaluate expected changes within different regions and measure the proportion of area affected within each crop's distributional range. By 2050, climatic change in Colombia will likely impact 3.5 million people, 14 % of national GDP corresponding to agriculture, employment of 21 % of the population, agro-industries, supply chains, and food and nutritional security. If no adaptation measures are taken, 80 % of crops would be impacted in more than 60 % of their current areas of cultivation, with particularly severe impacts in high value perennial and exportable crops. Impacts also include soil degradation and organic matter losses in the Andes hillsides; likely flooding in the Caribbean and Pacific coasts; niche losses for coffee, fruit, cocoa, and bananas; changes in prevalence of pests and diseases; and increases in the vulnerabilities of non-technically developed smallholders. There is, however, still time to change the current levels of vulnerability if a multidisciplinary focus (i.e., agronomic, economic, and social) in vulnerable sectors is undertaken. Each sub-sector and the Government need to invest in: (1) data collection, (2) detailed, regionally-based impact assessments, (3) research and development, and (4) extension and technology transfer. Support to vulnerable smallholders should be given by the state in the form of agricultural insurance systems contextualized under the phenomenon of climate change. A national coordination scheme led by (but not restricted to) the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR) with the contributions of national and international institutions is needed to address agricultural adaptation.