Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence
Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence
复制标题
预测生产率增长：美国增长复苏的经验教训
DOI：
10.1007/978-1-4615-0325-5_3
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
K. Stiroh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Jorgenson;M. Ho;K. Stiroh
1995年至2000年期间，产出增长加快与通胀降低的不寻常组合，在经济学家中引发了一场激烈的辩论，即美国经济表现的改善能否持续下去。随着2001年3月至11月的经济衰退和随后的复苏，这种争论愈演愈烈，而9·11事件对经济的影响仍未得到充分理解。这两者都增加了公共和私营部门决策者目前面临的有关未来增长的相当大的不确定性。2001年8月，由堪萨斯城联邦储备银行组织、在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的“信息经济经济政策研讨会”上，报告了对劳动生产率增长的预测，说明了知情意见的范围。加州大学伯克利分校经济学教授、哈佛大学校长j·布拉德福德·德隆（J. Bradford Delong）和前财政部长劳伦斯·h·萨默斯（Lawrence H. Summers）（2001年）提出了最乐观的观点，预计劳动生产率将以每年3.0%的速度增长。1经济顾问委员会前主席马丁·n·贝利（Martin N. Baily, 2001）提出了更为悲观的论调，他推测劳动生产率平均将接近每年2%至2.5%区间的低端。这种不确定性只会被以下观察放大：对于一个处于衰退中的经济体来说，最近的生产率估计仍然惊人地强劲。美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS 2002）估计，由于2001年经济衰退期间美国经济放缓，2001年商业部门生产率每年增长1.9%，而商业部门产出每年仅增长0.9%。然而，劳动生产率和产出的增长似乎都大大低于趋势率，这部分反映了经济增长放缓
The unusual combination of more rapid output growth and lower inflation from 1995 to 2000 has touched off a strenuous debate among economists about whether improvements in US economic performance can be sustained. This debate has intensified with the recession of March to November 2001 and subsequent recovery, and the economic impacts of the events of September 11 are still imperfectly understood. Both add to the considerable uncertainties about future growth that currently face decision makers in both the public and private sectors. The range of informed opinion can be illustrated by projections of labor productivity growth reported at the ‘Symposium on Economic Policy for the Information Economy’in August 2001, organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and held at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. J. Bradford Delong and Lawrence H. Summers (2001), Professor of Economics at UC-Berkeley, and President of Harvard University and former Secretary of the Treasury respectively, offered the most optimistic perspective with a projection of labor productivity growth of 3.0 per cent per year. 1 A more pessimistic tone was set by Martin N. Baily (2001), former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, who speculated that labor productivity would average near the low end of the 2.0 to 2.5 per cent per year range. This uncertainty is only magnified by the observation that recent productivity estimates remain surprisingly strong for an economy in recession. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS 2002) estimates that business sector productivity grew 1.9 per cent per year during 2001, while business sector output grew only 0.9 per cent per year as the US economy slowed during the 2001 recession. Growth of both labor productivity and output, however, appear considerably below trend rates, partially reflecting the
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.233139
发表时间：
2000-03
期刊：
IO: Productivity
影响因子：
--
作者：
Stephen D. Oliner;Daniel E. Sichel
通讯作者：
Stephen D. Oliner;Daniel E. Sichel