Risk of Cascading Blackouts Given Correlated Component Outages
Risk of Cascading Blackouts Given Correlated Component Outages
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DOI：
10.1109/tnse.2019.2910837
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发表时间：
2019-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
L. Clarfeld;P. Hines;E. Hernandez;M. Eppstein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Clarfeld;P. Hines;E. Hernandez;M. Eppstein
级联停电通常发生在电力系统中$N$个组件中的$k$个组件几乎同时发生停电时，触发随后的故障，这些故障通过网络传播并导致显著的甩负荷。虽然大型级联很少见，但它们的影响可能是灾难性的，因此量化它们的风险对于电网规划和运行非常重要。在以前的方法来量化这种风险的一个共同的假设是，$k$启动组件中断是统计独立的事件。然而，当由常见的外生原因触发时，启动停机实际上可能是相关的。在这里，Copula分析被用来量化的影响，启动停电的连锁故障的风险的相关性。该方法被证明在两个测试案例中，一个2383总线模型的波兰电网在不同的负载条件下和一个合成的10 000总线模型的基础上的地理美国西部。美国西部测试案例的大规模需要开发新的方法，以限制对造成停电的$N-3$突发事件总数的估计。结果表明，连锁故障的风险，和高阶突发事件的相对贡献，增加作为组件故障的空间相关性的函数。
Cascading blackouts typically occur when nearly simultaneous outages occur in $k$ out of $N$ components in a power system, triggering subsequent failures that propagate through the network and cause significant load shedding. While large cascades are rare, their impact can be catastrophic, so quantifying their risk is important for grid planning and operation. A common assumption in previous approaches to quantifying such risk is that the $k$ initiating component outages are statistically independent events. However, when triggered by a common exogenous cause, initiating outages may actually be correlated. Here, copula analysis is used to quantify the impact of correlation of initiating outages on the risk of cascading failure. The method is demonstrated on two test cases; a 2383-bus model of the Polish grid under varying load conditions and a synthetic 10 000-bus model based on the geography of the Western US. The large size of the Western US test case required development of new approaches for bounding an estimate of the total number of $N-3$ blackout-causing contingencies. The results suggest that both risk of cascading failure, and the relative contribution of higher order contingencies, increase as a function of spatial correlation in component failures.