A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate change on lake water quality
A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate change on lake water quality
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.07.021
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发表时间：
2007-12-16
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Harasawa, Hideo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Komatsu, Eiji;Fukushima, Takehiko;Harasawa, Hideo
评估了全球变暖对水温、溶解氧和营养物质以及水生生态系统等环境变量的长期影响。所开发的流域径流模型和通过 GCM A2 情景计算的气象输入水库水质模型应用于位于日本西部的岛地川水库。为了评估气候变化对水质和水生生态系统的敏感性和长期影响，我们将1991-2001年获得的湖泊模型模拟结果与2091-2100年获得的模拟结果进行比较。预测2090年代地表水温10年平均比1990年代上升约3.4摄氏度。预计地表水温将上升 3.8 摄氏度，下层水温将上升 2.8 摄氏度。因此，气温升高预计将延长热层化期，并加深温跃层。这种变化还可能导致需氧分解所需的氧气增加，并促进沉积物中磷的向上流动，从而增加下层磷的浓度和数量。在岛地川水库，厌氧条件下沉积物释放的磷酸盐通过垂直扩散扩散到AAE层，并通过周转输送到表层，导致表层浮游植物生长。基于使用水质模型的长期预测，全球变暖导致更多的营养性湖泊条件，进一步促进藻类生长并改变水生生态系统。 (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
The long-term effect of global warming on environmental variables, such as water temperature, dissolved oxygen and nutrients as well as aquatic ecosystems was assessed. The developed watershed runoff model and reservoir water quality model with meteorological input calculated by a GCM A2 scenario is applied to Shimajigawa reservoir located in western Japan. To evaluate the sensitivity and long-term effects of climate change on water quality and aquatic ecosystems, we compare the simulated results of the lake model obtained for 1991-2001 with those obtained for 2091-2100.The 10-year average of surface water temperature in the 2090s was predicted to increase by about 3.4 degrees C compared with in the 1990s. The surface water temperature is expected to increase by 3.8 degrees C and the water temperature of the hypolimnion by 2.8 degrees C. As a result, higher temperatures expected to expand the thermal stratification period, and deepen the thermocline. This change might also lead to an increase in oxygen demand for aerobic decomposition, and promote an upward flux of phosphorus from sediments, increasing the concentration and amount of phosphorus in the hypolimnion. In Shimajigawa reservoir, phosphate release from sediments under anaerobic conditions is spread to AAE layer by the vertical diffusion and is transported to the epilimnion by the turnover, causing phytoplankton growth in the epilimnion.Based on long-term prediction using water quality model global warming were shown to cause more trophic lake conditions, further promoting algal growth and changing the aquatic ecosystems. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.