CLIMATE CHANGE ON REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

CLIMATE CHANGE ON REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
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气候变化对参考蒸发量的影响

DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. S. Saseendran
A. S. Saseendran
中科院分区：
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文献类型：
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作者：
A. Islam;L. Ahuja;L. García;L. Ma;A. S. Saseendran

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全球变暖引起的蒸散量需求变化将对灌溉用水需求和农业生产力产生深远影响。在这项研究中，可能的未来人为气候变化的参考蒸散量（ETo）的影响进行了评估使用Penman-Monteith方程。温度和CO2浓度升高对ETO的综合影响是本研究的主要焦点。在大气环流模式（GCM）预测的气候变化情景下，估计了科罗拉多的一个位置的ETO。多模式集合气候变化情景是从世界气候研究计划（WCRP）档案中的112个偏差校正和空间分类（BCSD）预测中生成的，这些预测涵盖了不同的温室气体排放水平。结果表明，随着CO2水平的增加，ETO需求减少，这大大缓和了由于温度升高而导致的ETO增加。CO2水平增加到450 ppm的影响抵消了温度上升约1°C的影响。在不考虑CO2水平影响的情况下，预测气候变化情景的模拟结果显示，在2020年代，2050年代和2080年代，每年的ETo分别增加8.3%，14.7%和21.0%，当使用112个预测的集合进行模拟时。当二氧化碳水平升高的影响与预计的温度变化相结合时，在2020年代，2050年代和2080年代期间，年ETo需求的变化分别为-1.5%至5.5%，-10.4%至6.7%和-19.7%至6.6%。这取决于所考虑的不同气候变化情景以及用于估计CO2升高对Penman-Monteith方程中气孔阻力项的影响的关系或方程。
Changes in evapotranspiration demand due to global warming will have a profound impact on irrigation water demand and agricultural productivity. In this study, the effects of possible future anthropogenic climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) were evaluated using the Penman-Monteith equation. The combined effect of temperature and elevated CO2 concentrations on ETo was the major focus of this study. The ETo under the General Circulation Model (GCM) projected climate change scenarios was estimated for a location in Colorado. Multi-model ensemble climate change scenarios were generated from 112 Bias Corrected and Spatially Disaggregated (BCSD) projections from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) archive, which cover different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Results showed a decrease in ETo demand with increases in CO2 levels, which greatly moderated the increase in ETo due to increasing temperature. The effect of increases in CO2 levels up to 450 ppm offset the effect of about 1°C rise in temperature. Simulation results with projected climate change scenarios, without considering the effects of CO2 levels, showed an 8.3%, 14.7% and 21.0% increase in annual ETo during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, when simulation was carried out using an ensemble of the 112 projections. When the effect of elevated CO2 levels was also considered in combination with projected changes in temperature, changes in annual ETo demand varied from -1.5% to 5.5%, -10.4% to 6.7%, and -19.7% to 6.6% during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, depending on the different climate change scenarios considered and the relationship or equation used for estimating the effect of elevated CO2 on stomatal resistance term in the Penman-Monteith equation.