Modelling and analysis of HFMD with the effects of vaccination, contaminated environments and quarantine in mainland China
Modelling and analysis of HFMD with the effects of vaccination, contaminated environments and quarantine in mainland China
复制标题
中国大陆手足口病疫苗接种、污染环境和检疫影响的建模与分析
DOI：
10.3934/mbe.2019022
复制
发表时间：
2019-01-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Wu, Daiyong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shi, Lei;Zhao, Hongyong;Wu, Daiyong
目前，手足口病（HFMD）在中国大陆广泛流行，严重危害婴幼儿健康。最近在中国大陆，防止疾病传播需要疫苗接种、隔离措施以及污染环境中的病毒清除。然而，量化和评估这些策略对手足口病的疗效仍然具有挑战性，特别是因为分析 EV71 疫苗接种对这种疾病的影响的研究相对较少。为了评估这些策略的有效性，我们提出了一个新的数学模型，同时考虑疫苗接种、污染环境和检疫。与之前手足口病的研究不同，基本传染数R-0是决定疾病是否灭绝的唯一阈值，我们的结果表明需要另一个阈值：(R) over cap (0) < 1 (R-0
Currently, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is widespread in mainland China and seriously endangers the health of infants and young children. Recently in mainland China, preventing the spread of the disease has entailed vaccination, isolation measures, and virus cleanup in the contaminated environment. However, quantifying and evaluating the efficacy of these strategies on HFMD remains challenging, especially because relatively little research analyses the impact of EV71 vaccination for this disease. To assess the effectiveness of these strategies, we propose a new mathematical model that considers vaccination, contaminated environment, and quarantine simultaneously. Unlike the previous studies for HFMD, in which the basic reproduction number R-0 is the only threshold to decide whether the disease is extinct or not, our results show that another threshold value is needed: (R) over cap (0) < 1 (R-0