Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty
Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1111/1467-9280.02431
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发表时间：
2003-05-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Rottenstreich, Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fox, CR;Rottenstreich, Y
我们发现，似然判断偏向于一个服从先验概率，分配平等的信任，每个相互排斥的事件考虑的法官。无知先验的值主要取决于可能性集合（即，状态空间）由法官主观地划分。例如，问“星期天比下周其他任何一天都热的概率是多少？”“促进了一个双重的情况划分，（星期天更热，星期天不更热），从而启动1/2的无知先验。相反，问“一周中最热的一天是星期天的概率是多少？”“便于七倍类划分，{星期天最热，星期一最热等}，在1/7之前启动无知。在四项研究中，我们观察到系统的分区依赖性：由参与者提出的相同查询的情况下或类配方的判断偏向于相应的无知之前。
We show that likelihood judgments are biased toward an ignorance-prior probability that assigns equal credence to each mutually exclusive event considered by the judge. The value of the ignorance prior depends crucially on how the set of possibilities (i.e., the state space) is subjectively partitioned by the judge. For instance, asking "what is the probability that Sunday will be hotter than any other day next week?" facilitates a two fold case partition, (Sunday hotter, Sunday not hotter), thus priming an ignorance prior of 1/2. In contrast, asking "what is the probability that the hottest day of the week will be Sunday?" facilitates a seven fold class partition, {Sunday hottest, Monday hottest, etc.}, priming an ignorance prior of 1/7. In four studies, we observed systematic partition dependence: Judgments made by participants presented with either case or class formulations of the same query were biased toward the corresponding ignorance prior.