Contemporary Climate Change of the African Monsoon Systems
Contemporary Climate Change of the African Monsoon Systems
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DOI：
10.1007/s40641-019-00130-1
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
9.5
通讯作者：
Vizy, Edward K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cook, Kerry H.;Vizy, Edward K.
审查目的 审查我们目前对西非、东非和刚果盆地季风系统当前气候变化的理解。讨论了观测到的趋势的检测、变化的物理过程的分析和模型预测。 最新发现 萨赫勒降水量的增加与夏季加强和西非季风系统北移有关，这是对撒哈拉地区变暖加剧的反应。文献中也报道了东非北方春季降雨量以及刚果盆地春季和夏季降雨量的减少，但通过物理分析和模型预测得到的证实较少。这些地区的观测数据相对匮乏，妨碍了可靠的分析和准确的模拟。总结西非季风系统有可能在夏季为萨赫勒地区带来更多降水，其中一些降水是通过日益强烈的降雨事件带来的。目前尚不清楚随着全球气候持续变暖，东非和刚果盆地季风系统最近观察到的趋势是否会持续下去。我们不能期望这些季风系统在整个二十一世纪呈线性变化，因为随着海洋盆地以不同的速率和不同的分布变暖，不同的强迫因素可能会成为主导。
Purpose of Review Our current understanding of current climate change in the West African, East African, and Congo Basin monsoon systems is reviewed. The detection of observed trends, the analysis of the physical processes of change, and model projections are discussed.Recent Findings An increase in Sahel precipitation has been associated with a summer intensification and northward shift of the West African monsoon system as a response to amplified warming over the Sahara. Declines in the boreal spring rains over East Africa, and in spring and summer rains in the Congo Basin, are also reported in the literature but with less corroboration through physical analysis and model projections. Confident analysis and accurate simulation are hampered by a relative scarcity of observations in these regions.Summary The West African monsoon system is trending to bring more precipitation to the Sahel in summer, and some is delivered through increasingly intense rainfall events. It is not yet clear whether recent trends observed in the East African and Congo Basin monsoon systems can be expected to persist as the global climate continues to warm. We cannot expect these monsoon systems to change linearly through the twenty-first century because, as the ocean basins warm at different rates and with different distributions, different forcing factors may become dominant.