A participatory system dynamics model to investigate sustainable urban water management in Ebbsfleet Garden City
A participatory system dynamics model to investigate sustainable urban water management in Ebbsfleet Garden City
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scs.2021.102709
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发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
11.7
通讯作者：
Irene Pluchinotta;A. Pagano;T. Vilcan;S. Ahilan;L. Kapetas;S. Maskrey;V. Krivtsov;C. Thorne;E. O’Donnell
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文献类型：
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作者：
Irene Pluchinotta;A. Pagano;T. Vilcan;S. Ahilan;L. Kapetas;S. Maskrey;V. Krivtsov;C. Thorne;E. O’Donnell
城市人口的不断增长、降雨模式的变化和基础设施的老化，对城市水资源管理构成了重大挑战。迫切需要研究城市应如何适应，以便在不确定的未来中抵御这些影响。UWM的挑战，在埃布斯弗利特花园城市（英国）进行了调查，通过参与性的过程和潜在的可持续发展的解决方案进行了探讨，使用系统动力学模型（SDM）。Ebbsfleet学习和行动联盟对SDM的合作开发使利益相关者了解了未来的UWM选项，并对当前UWM系统内的相互依赖性进行了结构化探索。利益相关者的讨论集中在饮用水的使用和SDM的开发上，以调查如何通过一系列干预措施减少Ebbsfleet花园城市的居民饮用水消耗，例如，社会环境和经济政策激励措施。“可持续发展机制”办法支持全系统战略一级的决策，并便利探讨替代战略的长期后果，特别是难以纳入量化模型的战略。虽然可持续发展机制可由专家单独开发，但通过合作建立可使这一进程受益于当地知识，从而形成集体学习进程，并增加采用的可能性。
Growing urban populations, changes in rainfall patterns and ageing infrastructure represent significant challenges for urban water management (UWM). There is a critical need for research into how cities should adapt to become resilient to these impacts under uncertain futures. UWM challenges in the Ebbsfleet Garden City (UK) were investigated via a participatory process and potential sustainable solutions were explored using a System Dynamics Model (SDM). Collaborative development of the SDM by the Ebbsfleet Learning and Action Alliance developed stakeholders’ understanding of future UWM options and enabled a structured exploration of interdependencies within the current UWM system. Discussion by stakeholders resulted in a focus on potable water use and the development of the SDM to investigate how residential potable water consumption in the Ebbsfleet Garden City might be reduced through a range of interventions, e.g., socio-environmental and economic policy incentives. The SDM approach supports decision-making at a strategic, system-wide level, and facilitates exploration of the long-term consequences of alternative strategies, particularly those that are difficult to include in quantitative models. While an SDM can be developed by experts alone, building it collaboratively allows the process to benefit from local knowledge, resulting in a collective learning process and increased potential for adoption.