Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes
Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes
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DOI：
10.1029/2011gb004249
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发表时间：
2012-10-23
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Zhang, Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Daniau, A. -L.;Bartlein, P. J.;Zhang, Y.
气候是生物质燃烧的重要控制因素，但火灾对温度和水分平衡变化的敏感性尚未量化。我们分析了沉积木炭记录，表明过去21,000年来火灾状况的变化可以从区域气候的变化中预测出来。对古火灾数据的分析表明，火灾随着温度的变化而单调增加，在中等湿度水平时达到峰值，在数量上，温度是过去21年生物量燃烧变化的最重要驱动因素，鉴于气候驱动因素与火灾之间的类似关系出现在对生物量燃烧年际变化的分析中，这些分析是通过对每个月的遥感观测得出的，在1996年至2008年间，我们的研究结果表明，面对持续的全球变暖，我们的研究结果令人严重关切。
Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo-fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.