The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality
The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Wise, Marshall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Calvin, Katherine;Bond-Lamberty, Ben;Wise, Marshall
已经制定了五种新的情景，即共享的社会经济路径（ssp），涵盖了减缓和适应方面的一系列挑战。共享社会经济路径4 (SSP4)，即“不平等”或“分裂之路”，就是其中一种情景，其特点是减缓挑战小，适应挑战大。我们以定量的方式描述由全球变化评估模型（GCAM）实现的SSP4，该模型是该情景的标记模型。我们使用人口和经济假设，结合技术和非气候政策假设，开发出符合SSP4叙述的能源、土地利用和土地覆盖以及排放的定量表示。这种情况在地区内部和地区之间都存在明显差异。高收入地区经济繁荣，对能源和食品的需求持续增加。这些地区的电气化程度提高，核能和可再生能源满足了增加的发电量。然而，低收入地区由于经济增长有限而停滞不前。总消费的增长主要是人口的增长，而不是人均消费的增长。由于能源获取政策的失败，这些地区继续依赖传统的生物燃料，导致高污染物排放。所有区域对化石燃料依赖程度的下降意味着，不包括减缓或影响在内的总辐射强迫在2100年仅达到6.4瓦米（-2），这使得这个世界在减缓方面面临的挑战相对较低。我们探讨了减缓努力对SSP4世界的影响，发现征收碳价在不同地区有不同的影响。特别是，SSP4缓解情景的特点是高收入地区植树造林，低收入地区毁林。此外，我们发现，SSP4是一个缓解挑战较低的世界，但只是在一定程度上，因为与土地有关的排放的缓解不完全。(C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Five new scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), have been developed, spanning a range of challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4), "Inequality" or "A Road Divided," is one of these scenarios, characterized by low challenges to mitigation and high challenges to adaptation. We describe, in quantitative terms, the SSP4 as implemented by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), the marker model for this scenario. We use demographic and economic assumptions, in combination with technology and non-climate policy assumptions to develop a quantitative representation of energy, land-use and land-cover, and emissions consistent with the SSP4 narrative. The scenario is one with stark differences within and across regions. High-income regions prosper, continuing to increase their demand for energy and food. Electrification increases in these regions, with the increased generation being met by nuclear and renewables. Low-income regions, however, stagnate due to limited economic growth. Growth in total consumption is dominated by increases in population, not increases in per capita consumption. Due to failures in energy access policies, these regions continue to depend on traditional biofuels, leading to high pollutant emissions. Declining dependence on fossil fuels in all regions means that total radiative forcing absent the inclusion of mitigation or impacts only reaches 6.4W m(-2) in 2100, making this a world with relatively low challenges to mitigation. We explore the effects of mitigation effort on the SSP4 world, finding that the imposition of a carbon price has a varied effect across regions. In particular, the SSP4 mitigation scenarios are characterized by afforestation in the high-income regions and deforestation in the low-income regions. Furthermore, we find that the SSP4 is a world with low challenges to mitigation, but only to a point due to incomplete mitigation of land-related emissions. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.