Inefficiency in analysts' earnings forecasts: Systematic misreaction or systematic optimism?
Inefficiency in analysts' earnings forecasts: Systematic misreaction or systematic optimism?
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DOI：
10.1111/0022-1082.00166
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发表时间：
1999-10-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Nutt, SR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Easterwood, JC;Nutt, SR
对分析师行为的理性分析预测，分析师会立即毫无偏见地将信息纳入他们的预测。有几项研究记录了分析师系统性地对信息反应不足的倾向。反应不足与理性不一致。其他研究表明，分析师系统性地对新信息反应过度，或者他们系统性地乐观。这项研究通过检验信息的性质和分析师的反应类型之间的交互作用来区分这三个假设。证据表明，分析师对负面信息反应不足，但对正面信息反应过度。这些结果与对信息的系统性乐观反应是一致的。
A rational analysis of analyst behavior predicts that analysts immediately and without bias incorporate information into their forecasts. Several studies document analysts' tendency to systematically underreact to information. Underreaction is inconsistent with rationality. Other studies indicate that analysts systematically overreact to new information or that they are systematically optimistic. This study discriminates between these three hypotheses by examining the interaction between the nature of information and the type of reaction by analysts. The evidence indicates that analysts underreact to negative information, but overreact to positive information. These results are consistent with systematic optimism in response to information.