Futures Research Methods and Applications in Natural Resources
Futures Research Methods and Applications in Natural Resources
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DOI：
10.1080/08941920.2018.1547852
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发表时间：
2019-10-03
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Bengston, David N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bengston, David N.
期货研究是一个跨学科的研究领域，它使用各种方法来探索可能的、看似合理的和更好的未来。我们的目标是发展远见--洞察未来如何以及为什么会与今天不同--以改进政策、规划和决策。从20世纪50年代和60年代美国军方和兰德公司的开创性工作开始，数十种期货研究方法被开发或改编自其他学科。但许多社会科学家和自然资源专业人士并不知道这些方法，而且大多数人从未听说过未来研究是一个独特的研究领域。本文提出了未来研究方法的分类框架，回顾了选定的方法，并提供了它们在自然资源和环境问题上的应用实例。
Futures research is a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that uses a variety of methods to explore possible, plausible, and preferable futures. The goal is to develop foresight-insight into how and why the future could be different than today-to improve policy, planning, and decision making. Scores of futures research methods have been developed or adapted from other disciplines, beginning with pioneering work in the US military and RAND Corporation in the 1950s and 1960s. But many social scientists and natural resource professionals are unaware of these methods and most have never heard of futures research as a distinct field of study. This paper presents a framework for categorizing futures research methods, reviews selected methods, and provides examples of their application to natural resource and environmental issues.