Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics
Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics
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DOI：
10.1101/2019.12.20.883363
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发表时间：
2019-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nicole Nova;E. Deyle;Marta S. Shocket;Andrew J. MacDonald;M. Childs;M. Rypdal;G. Sugihara;E. Mordecai
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文献类型：
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作者：
Nicole Nova;E. Deyle;Marta S. Shocket;Andrew J. MacDonald;M. Childs;M. Rypdal;G. Sugihara;E. Mordecai
实验和模型表明，气候影响蚊媒疾病的传播。然而，疾病传播涉及气候和人口动态之间复杂的非线性相互作用，这使得在人口水平上检测气候驱动因素具有挑战性。通过使用基于非线性时间序列分析的方法（统称为经验动态建模）分析发病率数据、估计的易感人群规模和气候数据，我们确定了波多黎各圣胡安登革热动态的驱动因素及其相互作用。只有当敏感的可用性很高时，气候强迫才会出现：温度和降雨量分别具有净正效应和负效应。通过捕获人口易感性，温度和降雨对登革热传播的经验性的机械，非线性和上下文相关的影响，我们的模型提高了预测技能，最近，国家的最先进的登革热发病率模型。总之，这些结果提供了经验证据，表明宿主种群易感性和气候的相互依赖性以非线性和复杂但可预测的方式驱动登革热动态。
Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analyzing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modeling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects, respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear, and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature, and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drive dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.