A longitudinal analysis of the risk factors for diabetes and coronary heart disease in the Framingham Offspring Study.
A longitudinal analysis of the risk factors for diabetes and coronary heart disease in the Framingham Offspring Study.
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DOI：
10.1186/1478-7954-1-3
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发表时间：
2003-04-14
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Bhargava, Alok
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bhargava, Alok
背景：最近久坐不动的生活方式和体重增加的趋势可能会导致高血压、糖尿病和心血管疾病等慢性疾病。这些疾病背后的时间序列和路径可以利用生物医学和社会科学的知识来建模。方法：美国弗雷明翰后代研究收集了5124名受试者在基线、基线后8年、12年、16年和20年的信息。对受试者的体重、低密度脂蛋白和高密度脂蛋白胆固醇以及血压进行了4次动态随机效应模型估计。对糖尿病和冠心病(CHD)事件的概率进行Logistic和Probit模型估计。结果：年龄、体力活动、饮酒、吸烟是危险因素的重要预测因素。此外，体重和身高被发现对糖尿病和冠心病事件的概率有不同的影响；体重与糖尿病风险呈正相关，而身高较高的人发生冠心病事件的风险较低。结论：研究结果显示了体重、低密度脂蛋白和高密度脂蛋白胆固醇以及血压的联合建模的重要性，这些因素是糖尿病和冠心病事件的危险因素。通过体育锻炼获得的较低体重和低密度脂蛋白浓度以及较高的高密度脂蛋白水平可能会减少糖尿病和冠心病事件。
BACKGROUND: The recent trends in sedentary life-styles and weight gain are likely to contribute to chronic conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. The temporal sequence and pathways underlying these conditions can be modeled using the knowledge from the biomedical and social sciences. METHODS: The Framingham Offspring Study in the U.S. collected information on 5124 subjects at baseline, and 8, 12, 16, and 20 years after the baseline. Dynamic random effects models were estimated for the subjects' weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure using 4 time observations. Logistic and probit models were estimated for the probability of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) events. RESULTS: The subjects' age, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and cigarettes smoked were important predictors of the risk factors. Moreover, weight and height were found to differentially affect the probabilities of diabetes and CHD events; body weight was positively associated with the risk of diabetes while taller individuals had lower risk of CHD events. CONCLUSION: The results showed the importance of joint modeling of body weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure that are risk factors for diabetes and CHD events. Lower body weight and LDL concentrations and higher HDL levels achieved via physical exercise are likely to reduce diabetes and CHD events.