Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of a Foodborne Illness Outbreak
Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of a Foodborne Illness Outbreak
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DOI：
10.1177/0033354917751129
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Lee, Bruce Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bartsch, Sarah M.;Asti, Lindsey;Lee, Bruce Y.
目标：尽管与餐厅相关的食源性疾病的爆发定期发生并成为新闻，但餐厅可能不知道爆发的成本。我们在不同情况下估算了这一成本。方法：我们开发了一个计算模拟模型；情景中的疫情规模（5 至 250 人受影响）、病原体（n = 15）、餐饮场所类型（快餐、休闲快餐、休闲餐厅和高级餐厅）、收入损失（即每次疾病损失的餐食）、诉讼费用和法律费用、罚款和保险费增加各不相同。 结果：我们估计，单次食源性疾病爆发的成本范围为 3968 美元到 190 万美元，快餐店为 6330 美元到 210 万美元。对于快餐休闲餐厅，休闲餐厅为 8030 至 220 万美元，高级餐厅为 8273 至 260 万美元，范围从 5 人爆发，没有收入损失、诉讼、法律费用或罚款，到 250 人爆发，收入损失很高（每次生病损失 100 顿饭），以及大量诉讼和法律费用（1656569 美元）和罚款（100000 美元）。该成本相当于餐厅年度营销成本的10%至5790%，以及年度利润和收入的0.3%至101%。最大的成本驱动因素是诉讼和法律费用、疫情规模和收入损失。病原体类型对成本的影响最大为 337000 美元，这是蜡样芽孢杆菌爆发（成本最低）和李斯特菌爆发（成本最高）之间的差异。结论：一次食源性疾病爆发给餐厅带来的成本可能相当大，超过了预防和控制措施的典型成本。我们的研究可以帮助决策者确定投资并推动餐厅环境中感染控制措施的研究。
Objectives: Although outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances.Methods: We developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n = 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases.Results: We estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1656569) and fines ($100000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant's annual marketing costs and 0.3% to 101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue. Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly).Conclusions: The cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research for infection-control measures in restaurant settings.