The Effect of the Housing Crisis on Interstate Migration in the Counties of Florida, 2008–2009 and 2013–2014
The Effect of the Housing Crisis on Interstate Migration in the Counties of Florida, 2008–2009 and 2013–2014
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2008-2009 年和 2013-2014 年佛罗里达州各县住房危机对州际移民的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Evelyn D. Ravuri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Evelyn D. Ravuri
世纪后半叶，佛罗里达被认为是州际移民的首选目的地。然而，在2008-09年期间，佛罗里达州净损失了31,000名州际移民。州际移民的流失是在2007-08年经济衰退和房地产崩溃之后发生的。本文探讨了2008-09年和2013-14年佛罗里达各县住房崩溃对州内、州外和州际净移民的影响。普通最小二乘回归被应用于确定影响两个时间段的州际移民、州际移民和净移民的变量。净移民率显示，2008-09年期间，住房价值下降最多、就业损失最大的县失去了移民。这一损失可能是由于州际移民从经历住房危机的县向外移民，以及州际移民不愿选择经历住房崩溃冲击的县。在2013-14年度，净移民率最高的县经历了最低的住房价值增长。这表明，在佛罗里达的情况下，净移民有利于那些不太可能经历住房价值快速增长（如2013-14年）和快速下降（2008-09年）的县。
For the latter half of the twentieth century Florida was noted as a preferred destination for interstate migrants. However, during 2008–09, Florida had a net loss of 31,000 interstate migrants. This loss of interstate migrants followed the economic recession and housing collapse of 2007–08. This paper explores the effect of the housing collapse on in-, out-, and net interstate migration for the counties of Florida for 2008–09 and 2013–14 using the Internal Revenue Service Migration Files. Ordinary Least Squares Regression was applied to determine the variables that affected interstate in-, out-, and net migration for the two time periods. Net migration rates revealed that counties with the greatest housing value declines and the greatest loss in employment lost migrants during 2008–09. This loss could be attributed to the out-migration of interstate migrants from counties experiencing the housing crisis and the reluctance of interstate migrants to select counties that experienced the brunt of housing collapse. For 2013–14, the highest net migration rates accrued to counties experiencing the lowest housing value increases. This suggests that in the case of Florida, net migration favors counties that are less likely to experience rapid increases (as in 2013–14) and rapid decreases (2008–09) in housing values.