Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models
Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models
复制标题
使用“分裂群体”生存时间模型预测犯罪累犯
DOI：
10.1016/0304-4076(89)90034-1
复制
发表时间：
1987
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Witte
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Schmidt;A. Witte
本文建立了一个最终失效概率小于1，且最终失效概率和失效时间分别取决于个体特征的生存时间模型。我们将这个模型应用于监狱释放样本的返回监狱时间的数据，并使用它来预测个人是否会返回监狱。我们的预测比以前对犯罪累犯的预测更准确。我们开发的模型在经济学中有潜在的应用；例如，它可以用来对贷款违约的概率和违约时间进行建模。
In this paper we develop a survival time model in which the probability of eventual failure is less than one and in which both the probability of eventual failure and the timing of failure depend (separately) on individual characteristics. We apply this model to data on the timing of return to prison for a sample of prison releases, and we use it to make predictions of whether or not individuals return to prison. Our predictions are more accurate then previous predictions of criminal recidivism. The model we develop has potential applications in economics; for example, it could be used to model the probability of default and the timing of default on loans.