What Caused the Sharp Downturn in the Chinese Economy During the Global Financial Crisis? A Critical Note on Causality in Trade Linkage
What Caused the Sharp Downturn in the Chinese Economy During the Global Financial Crisis? A Critical Note on Causality in Trade Linkage
复制标题
全球金融危机期间中国经济大幅下滑的原因是什么？
DOI：
10.1111/j.1749-124x.2010.01204.x
复制
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Panpan Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liping He;G. Fan;Panpan Yang
针对将2008年末和2009年初中国经济的急剧下滑归咎于“外部需求崩溃”的观点，本文分析了三个相关问题：中国大型进口商在需求价格环境下的表现如何？近年来，中国商品进出口是如何互动的？中国出口增长的下滑是否比进口增长来得更早、更深？所有答案似乎都表明了与上述观点相反的结论：在最近的全球金融危机中，中国贸易和经济的急剧下滑在很大程度上是由某些国内因素造成的，或者是不应被视为完全“外部”的因素造成的。”随着全球化的发展，像今天的中国这样的大型经济体面临着来自内部和外部的新的潜在宏观经济干扰源。
In responding to a view that attributes sharp downturns in the Chinese economy in late 2008 and early 2009 to the “collapse of external demand,” the present paper scrutinizes three relevant issues: How have large Chinese importers behaved in a demand-price setting? How have Chinese commodity imports and exports interacted in recent years? Did the downturns in China's export growth come earlier and were they deeper than those in Chinese import growth? All answers appear to suggest a conclusion contrary to the abovementioned view: sharp downturns in China's trade and economy during the recent global financial crisis were, to a large extent, caused by certain domestic factors, or by factors that should not be regarded as entirely “external.” Insomuch as globalization has advanced, a large economy like China's today faces new potential sources of macroeconomic disturbances, from inside and outside.